Kwanan nan, Robin Griffin, mataimakin shugaban karafa da hakar ma'adinai a Wood Mackenzie, ya ce, "Mun yi hasashen raguwar tagulla mai yawa har zuwa shekarar 2030." Ya danganta wannan da rikicin da ke ci gaba da faruwa a Peru da kuma karuwar bukatar tagulla daga bangaren sauyin makamashi.
Ya ƙara da cewa: "Duk lokacin da aka sami rikicin siyasa, akwai tasirin da ke tattare da hakan. Kuma ɗaya daga cikin mafi bayyane shine cewa ma'adanai na iya zama dole a rufe su."
Peru ta fuskanci zanga-zanga tun bayan da aka tsige tsohon shugaban kasar Castillo a shari'ar tsige shi a watan Disamba da ya gabata, wanda ya shafi hakar tagulla a kasar. Kasar Kudancin Amurka ce ke da kashi 10 cikin 100 na wadatar tagulla a duniya.
Bugu da ƙari, Chile - ƙasar da ta fi kowacce samar da jan ƙarfe a duniya, wadda ke da kashi 27% na wadatar da ake samu a duniya - ta ga raguwar samar da jan ƙarfe da kashi 7% a shekara a watan Nuwamba. Goldman Sachs ya rubuta a wani rahoto daban a ranar 16 ga Janairu: "Gabaɗaya, mun yi imanin cewa samar da jan ƙarfe a Chile zai ragu tsakanin 2023 da 2025."
Tina Teng, mai sharhi kan kasuwa a CMC Markets, ta ce, "Tattalin arzikin sake farawa a Asiya zai yi tasiri sosai kan farashin tagulla yayin da yake inganta hasashen buƙatu kuma zai ƙara tura farashin tagulla sama saboda ƙarancin wadata a kan yanayin sauyin makamashi mai tsabta wanda ke sa haƙar ma'adinai ya fi wahala."
Teng ya ƙara da cewa: "Karancin jan ƙarfe zai ci gaba har sai an samu koma bayan tattalin arziki a duniya wanda matsalar tattalin arziki ta haifar a yanzu, wataƙila a shekarar 2024 ko 2025. Har zuwa lokacin, farashin jan ƙarfe zai iya ninka sau biyu.
Duk da haka, masanin tattalin arziki na Wolfe Research Timna Tanners ya ce tana tsammanin ayyukan samar da tagulla da amfani da su ba za su ga wani "babban koma-baya" ba yayin da tattalin arzikin Asiya ke murmurewa. Ta yi imanin cewa babban abin da ke haifar da samar da wutar lantarki na iya zama babban abin da ke haifar da buƙatar tagulla.
Lokacin Saƙo: Satumba-07-2023